May 13, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 037 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Michael Johnson's 14-fight experience advantage (24 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michael Johnson for the expected result. Had Alan Patrick pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 012 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:22 | 3:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 074 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +88 |
Michael Johnson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 47 | 48 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 923 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Michael Johnson controlled the striking exchanges with 30 vs 22 significant strikes, 62.5% vs 46.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Michael Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:12 | 2:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 990 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -84 | +84 |
Michael Johnson landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 343 | 462 |
| Activity ELO | 1 068 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +17 |
Michael Johnson demonstrated extended layoff with 462 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Michael Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Alan Patrick's 343-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Michael Johnson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alan Patrick is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 011 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.