October 5, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 107 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +36 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:42 | 3:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 153 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +115 |
Scott Holtzman gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 73 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 111 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 96 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 018 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | -127 | +127 |
Scott Holtzman dominated the striking exchanges with 96 vs 27 total strikes, 73 vs 25 significant strikes, 65.8% vs 40.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Scott Holtzman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 5:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 40 |
| Ground ELO | 1 161 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -95 | +95 |
Scott Holtzman controlled Alan Patrick on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 5:36 of control time, 40 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 245 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 101 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Scott Holtzman demonstrated standard activity with 301 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Scott Holtzman capitalized on this activity level, while Alan Patrick's 245-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 076 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +32 |
Scott Holtzman extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alan Patrick is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.