September 23, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 108 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 182 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Alan Patrick earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 9 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 56 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 122 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Alan Patrick slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 7 vs 2 significant strikes, 58.3% vs 22.2% accuracy. Alan Patrick capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:12 | 1:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 204 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +88 | -88 |
Alan Patrick controlled Stevie Ray on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 12:12 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 336 |
| Activity ELO | 1 113 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -23 |
Alan Patrick demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alan Patrick capitalized on this activity level, while Stevie Ray's 336-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 078 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Alan Patrick extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stevie Ray is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alan Patrick | Stevie Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.