November 18, 2016
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Albert Morales | Thomas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 991 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Thomas Almeida's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thomas Almeida for the expected result. Had Albert Morales pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Albert Morales | Thomas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Albert Morales | Thomas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:37 | 1:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 986 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +43 |
Thomas Almeida gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Albert Morales | Thomas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 79 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 934 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
Thomas Almeida controlled the striking exchanges with 42 vs 18 total strikes, 41 vs 18 significant strikes, 51.9% vs 24.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thomas Almeida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Albert Morales | Thomas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:36 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 984 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Thomas Almeida did not secure a significant ground advantage against Albert Morales on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Albert Morales | Thomas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 64 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 990 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +24 |
Thomas Almeida demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thomas Almeida capitalized on this activity level, while Albert Morales's 64-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Albert Morales | Thomas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Thomas Almeida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Albert Morales is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Albert Morales | Thomas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

