January 22, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 949 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Kurt Pellegrino's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kurt Pellegrino for the expected result. Had Alberto Crane pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 964 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:55 | 1:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 952 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +62 |
Kurt Pellegrino gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 51 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 883 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Kurt Pellegrino controlled the striking exchanges with 37 vs 12 total strikes, 23 vs 4 significant strikes, 45.1% vs 15.4% accuracy. Kurt Pellegrino capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:45 | 2:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 937 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Kurt Pellegrino controlled Alberto Crane on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:02 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 152 | 152 |
| Activity ELO | 971 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +30 |
Kurt Pellegrino demonstrated solid activity levels with 152 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kurt Pellegrino capitalized on this activity level, while Alberto Crane's 152-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 966 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Kurt Pellegrino started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alberto Crane is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 964 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.