August 24, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Roger Huerta's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roger Huerta for the expected result. Had Alberto Crane pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:50 | 1:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 982 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +37 |
Roger Huerta gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 64 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 97 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 952 | 1 259 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Roger Huerta dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 14 total strikes, 26 vs 4 significant strikes, 40.6% vs 66.7% accuracy. Roger Huerta capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:45 | 6:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 23 |
| Ground ELO | 977 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Roger Huerta controlled Alberto Crane on the ground with 6:32 of control time, 23 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 988 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +37 |
Roger Huerta demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Roger Huerta capitalized on this activity level, while Alberto Crane's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +29 |
Roger Huerta continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Alberto Crane's now at 0.
| Metric | Alberto Crane | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

