May 13, 2022
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 250 | 1 325 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Jan Blachowicz's 10-fight experience advantage (18 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jan Blachowicz for the expected result. Had Aleksandar Rakic pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 094 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:11 | 1:11 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 408 | 1 658 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +43 |
Jan Blachowicz gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 61 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 368 | 1 642 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jan Blachowicz slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 43.7% vs 31.8% accuracy. Jan Blachowicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:33 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 248 | 1 373 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Jan Blachowicz did not secure a significant ground advantage against Aleksandar Rakic on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 434 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 185 | 1 402 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +13 |
Jan Blachowicz demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jan Blachowicz capitalized on this activity level, while Aleksandar Rakic's 434-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 125 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +16 |
Jan Blachowicz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aleksandar Rakic is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 088 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.