March 5, 2021
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 280 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -31 |
Aleksandar Rakic overcame a 14-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Thiago Santos.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 107 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 429 | 1 432 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Aleksandar Rakic earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 97 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 391 | 1 433 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Thiago Santos controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (49 vs 36), superior accuracy (50.5% vs 40.4%). However, since Thiago Santos lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Aleksandar Rakic's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:32 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 263 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Aleksandar Rakic did not secure a significant ground advantage against Thiago Santos on the ground with 2:32 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 195 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -31 |
Aleksandar Rakic demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Aleksandar Rakic capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Santos's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 140 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -25 |
Aleksandar Rakic extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aleksandar Rakic | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 107 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

