March 13, 2020
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 128 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos's 6-fight experience advantage (10 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos for the expected result. Had Aleksei Kunchenko pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 017 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 091 | 1 336 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 112 | 156 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 079 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Aleksei Kunchenko controlled the striking through superior volume (97 vs 74 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (57 vs 62), superior accuracy (50.9% vs 39.7%). However, since Aleksei Kunchenko lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 2:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 048 | 1 221 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos edged out Aleksei Kunchenko on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:30 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 218 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 102 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Aleksei Kunchenko's 218-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 036 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aleksei Kunchenko is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 016 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

