August 9, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 158 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Gilbert Burns's 9-fight experience advantage (12 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gilbert Burns for the expected result. Had Aleksei Kunchenko pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 034 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 111 | 1 305 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Gilbert Burns earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 102 | 83 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 115 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 098 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Aleksei Kunchenko controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (115 vs 63 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (47 vs 42). However, since Aleksei Kunchenko lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gilbert Burns's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:28 | 6:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 081 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Gilbert Burns controlled Aleksei Kunchenko on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 6:58 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 252 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 120 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +48 |
Gilbert Burns demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gilbert Burns capitalized on this activity level, while Aleksei Kunchenko's 252-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 049 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +24 |
Gilbert Burns extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aleksei Kunchenko is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aleksei Kunchenko | Gilbert Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 033 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

