April 19, 2019
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Alistair Overeem |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 146 | 1 274 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Alistair Overeem's 7-fight experience advantage (16 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alistair Overeem for the expected result. Had Aleksei Oleinik pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Alistair Overeem |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 061 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Alistair Overeem |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:45 | 4:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 373 | 1 567 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +66 |
Alistair Overeem earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Alistair Overeem |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 116 | 1 324 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Aleksei Oleinik controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (78 vs 31 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (38 vs 29), superior accuracy (65.5% vs 87.9%). However, since Aleksei Oleinik lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alistair Overeem's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Alistair Overeem |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:23 | 1:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 170 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Alistair Overeem landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Alistair Overeem |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 152 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +30 |
Alistair Overeem demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alistair Overeem capitalized on this activity level, while Aleksei Oleinik's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Alistair Overeem |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 083 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Alistair Overeem extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aleksei Oleinik is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Alistair Overeem |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

