August 7, 2020
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 162 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Derrick Lewis's 7-fight experience advantage (20 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Aleksei Oleinik pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 070 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:21 | 0:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 342 | 1 579 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +48 |
Derrick Lewis gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 070 | 1 436 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Derrick Lewis controlled the striking exchanges with 35 vs 3 total strikes, 35 vs 2 significant strikes, 83.3% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Derrick Lewis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:21 | 2:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 30 |
| Ground ELO | 1 190 | 1 314 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Derrick Lewis controlled Aleksei Oleinik on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:39 of control time, 30 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 209 | 1 387 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +16 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Aleksei Oleinik's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 100 | 1 246 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +19 |
Derrick Lewis extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Aleksei Oleinik is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.