April 8, 2022
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Jared Vanderaa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 105 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Aleksei Oleinik's 11-fight experience advantage (16 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Aleksei Oleinik for the expected result. Had Jared Vanderaa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Jared Vanderaa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Jared Vanderaa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:39 | 3:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 253 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -17 |
Aleksei Oleinik earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:39, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Jared Vanderaa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 876 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Jared Vanderaa controlled the striking through superior volume (23 vs 8 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (15 vs 8). However, since Jared Vanderaa lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Aleksei Oleinik's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Jared Vanderaa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:44 | 0:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 115 | 905 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Aleksei Oleinik edged out Jared Vanderaa on the ground with 0:44 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Jared Vanderaa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 294 | 56 |
| Activity ELO | 1 169 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Aleksei Oleinik demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Aleksei Oleinik capitalized on this activity level, while Jared Vanderaa's 56-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Jared Vanderaa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -16 |
Aleksei Oleinik started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jared Vanderaa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Jared Vanderaa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 039 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.