January 17, 2020
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 131 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Aleksei Oleinik's 6-fight experience advantage (11 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Aleksei Oleinik for the expected result. Had Maurice Greene pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:38 | 4:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 349 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -19 |
Aleksei Oleinik earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:38, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Maurice Greene was submitted.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 068 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Maurice Greene controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (13 vs 7), superior accuracy (44.8% vs 31.8%). However, since Maurice Greene lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Aleksei Oleinik's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:24 | 0:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 239 | 897 |
| ELO Change | +135 | -135 |
Aleksei Oleinik dominated Maurice Greene on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:24 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 85 |
| Activity ELO | 1 149 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Aleksei Oleinik demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Aleksei Oleinik capitalized on this activity level, while Maurice Greene's 85-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 080 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Aleksei Oleinik started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Maurice Greene is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Aleksei Oleinik | Maurice Greene |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

