May 20, 2022
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alen Amedovski | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 910 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alen Amedovski | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 937 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alen Amedovski | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:04 | 1:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 890 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +74 |
Joseph Holmes earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:04, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alen Amedovski | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 725 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Joseph Holmes controlled the striking exchanges with 16 vs 1 significant strikes, 69.6% vs 12.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Joseph Holmes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alen Amedovski | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 758 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Joseph Holmes dominated Alen Amedovski on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:21 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alen Amedovski | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 966 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 942 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +40 |
Joseph Holmes demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joseph Holmes capitalized on this activity level, while Alen Amedovski's 966-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alen Amedovski | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 939 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Joseph Holmes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alen Amedovski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alen Amedovski | Joseph Holmes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 937 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.