December 16, 2022
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Amir Albazi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Amir Albazi's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Amir Albazi for the expected result. Had Alessandro Costa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Amir Albazi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Amir Albazi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:13 | 2:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 976 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +48 |
Amir Albazi gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Amir Albazi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 71 | 81 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 906 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -94 | +94 |
Amir Albazi dominated the striking exchanges with 62 vs 38 total strikes, 37 vs 17 significant strikes, 45.7% vs 23.9% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Amir Albazi capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Amir Albazi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 5:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 973 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Amir Albazi landed 2 knockdowns followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Amir Albazi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +35 |
Amir Albazi demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Amir Albazi capitalized on this activity level, while Alessandro Costa's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Amir Albazi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +24 |
Amir Albazi extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alessandro Costa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Amir Albazi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

