November 10, 2023
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 990 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 028 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Steve Erceg earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 74 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 125 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 85 | 104 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 007 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Steve Erceg controlled the striking exchanges with 74 vs 54 significant strikes. Steve Erceg capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:14 | 6:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 961 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Steve Erceg controlled Alessandro Costa on the ground with 1 takedown, 6:29 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 991 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +35 |
Steve Erceg demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Steve Erceg capitalized on this activity level, while Alessandro Costa's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Steve Erceg extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alessandro Costa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alessandro Costa | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.