February 29, 2008
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 935 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Chris Leben's 3-fight experience advantage (11 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Leben for the expected result. Had Alessio Sakara pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:16 | 3:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 096 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +64 |
Chris Leben earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:16, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 030 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -81 | +81 |
Chris Leben controlled the striking exchanges with 24 vs 13 significant strikes, 48.0% vs 39.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Chris Leben capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 934 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 42 | 165 |
| Activity ELO | 1 037 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +21 |
Chris Leben demonstrated solid activity levels with 165 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Leben capitalized on this activity level, while Alessio Sakara's 42-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 988 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +20 |
Chris Leben extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alessio Sakara is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Chris Leben |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.