August 7, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 016 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Alessio Sakara's 2-fight experience advantage (10 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alessio Sakara for the expected result. Had Thales Leites pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 028 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 182 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Alessio Sakara receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 83 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 134 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Thales Leites lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Alessio Sakara's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:33 | 2:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 029 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Alessio Sakara did not secure a significant ground advantage against Thales Leites on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:33 of control time, 2 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 325 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 087 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Alessio Sakara demonstrated standard activity with 325 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Alessio Sakara capitalized on this activity level, while Thales Leites's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 044 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -26 |
Alessio Sakara extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thales Leites is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 028 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

