April 20, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Victor Valimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 939 | 932 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Alessio Sakara's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alessio Sakara for the expected result. Had Victor Valimaki pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Victor Valimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 996 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Victor Valimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:44 | 1:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 065 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +112 | -47 |
Alessio Sakara earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:44, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Victor Valimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 058 | 838 |
| ELO Change | +143 | -143 |
Alessio Sakara slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 6 vs 0 significant strikes, 26.1% vs 0.0% accuracy. Alessio Sakara capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Victor Valimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 985 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Victor Valimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 129 |
| Activity ELO | 1 029 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -20 |
Alessio Sakara demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alessio Sakara capitalized on this activity level, while Victor Valimaki's 129-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Victor Valimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 000 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Alessio Sakara started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Victor Valimaki is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alessio Sakara | Victor Valimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 996 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

