August 28, 2020
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Austin Springer |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 23 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 22 | -22 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Alex Caceres's 22-fight experience advantage (23 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Caceres for the expected result. Had Austin Springer pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Austin Springer |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 051 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Austin Springer |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:38 | 3:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 140 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -32 |
Alex Caceres earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Austin Springer |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 31 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 136 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Alex Caceres slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 58.1% vs 43.8% accuracy. Alex Caceres capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Austin Springer |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:10 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 029 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Austin Springer |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 166 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -14 |
Alex Caceres demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Alex Caceres capitalized on this activity level, while Austin Springer's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Austin Springer |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 078 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Alex Caceres extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Austin Springer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Austin Springer |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 051 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

