December 16, 2022
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 27 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 15 | -15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 056 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Alex Caceres's 15-fight experience advantage (27 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Caceres for the expected result. Had Julian Erosa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 084 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:04 | 3:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 275 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | +88 | -41 |
Alex Caceres earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:04, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 22 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 226 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Alex Caceres controlled the striking exchanges with 16 vs 10 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alex Caceres capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 149 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 280 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 193 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Alex Caceres demonstrated standard activity with 280 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Alex Caceres capitalized on this activity level, while Julian Erosa's 99-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 131 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Alex Caceres started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Julian Erosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Julian Erosa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 084 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

