Alex Caceres vs Julian Erosa

December 16, 2022

Featherweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1150
(+40)
Alex Caceres
Winner: Alex Caceres
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 3:04

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alex Caceres+40
Julian Erosa-34
1049
(-34)
Julian Erosa

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Caceres: +33Julian Erosa: -33

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex CaceresJulian Erosa
Total UFC Fights2712
Experience Gap15-15
Experience ELO1 0561 012
ELO Change+33-33
💡

What Happened

Alex Caceres's 15-fight experience advantage (27 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Caceres for the expected result. Had Julian Erosa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Caceres: +19Julian Erosa: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex CaceresJulian Erosa
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0841 020
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Caceres: +88Julian Erosa: -41

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex CaceresJulian Erosa
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:043:04
Win Type ELO1 2751 136
ELO Change+88-41
💡

What Happened

Alex Caceres earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:04, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Caceres: +50Julian Erosa: -50

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex CaceresJulian Erosa
Significant Strikes Landed1610
Significant Strikes Attempted3022
Total Strikes Landed1610
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 226941
ELO Change+50-50
💡

What Happened

Alex Caceres controlled the striking exchanges with 16 vs 10 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alex Caceres capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Caceres: +68Julian Erosa: -68

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex CaceresJulian Erosa
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:050:00
Ground Strikes Landed30
Ground ELO1 1491 118
ELO Change+68-68
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Caceres: +18Julian Erosa: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex CaceresJulian Erosa
Days Since Last Fight28099
Activity ELO1 1931 103
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

Alex Caceres demonstrated standard activity with 280 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Alex Caceres capitalized on this activity level, while Julian Erosa's 99-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Caceres: +20Julian Erosa: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex CaceresJulian Erosa
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 1311 045
ELO Change+20-18
💡

What Happened

Alex Caceres started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Julian Erosa is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Caceres: +19Julian Erosa: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex CaceresJulian Erosa
Weight ClassFeatherweightFeatherweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0841 020
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.