February 26, 2021
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kevin Croom |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 24 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 22 | -22 |
| Experience ELO | 1 012 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Alex Caceres's 22-fight experience advantage (24 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Caceres for the expected result. Had Kevin Croom pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kevin Croom |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 069 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kevin Croom |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 166 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Alex Caceres earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kevin Croom |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 48 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 68 | 51 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 97 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 170 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Alex Caceres dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 26 total strikes, 48 vs 16 significant strikes, 70.6% vs 31.4% accuracy. Alex Caceres capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kevin Croom |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:44 | 7:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 083 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Alex Caceres controlled Kevin Croom on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:44 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kevin Croom |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 181 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -12 |
Alex Caceres demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alex Caceres capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Croom's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kevin Croom |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 101 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -16 |
Alex Caceres extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Croom is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kevin Croom |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 069 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.