February 16, 2019
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kron Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 19 | -19 |
| Experience ELO | 854 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Kron Gracie overcame a 19-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 20 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alex Caceres.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kron Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 990 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kron Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:06 | 2:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 009 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +86 |
Kron Gracie earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:06, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kron Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 14 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 009 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Alex Caceres lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Kron Gracie's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kron Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 892 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Kron Gracie controlled Alex Caceres on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:14 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kron Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 227 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 081 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Kron Gracie demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Kron Gracie capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Caceres's 227-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kron Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 009 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Kron Gracie started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Caceres is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Kron Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 990 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.