July 5, 2018
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Martin Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 939 | 916 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Alex Caceres's 16-fight experience advantage (19 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Caceres for the expected result. Had Martin Bravo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Martin Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 012 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Martin Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 058 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Alex Caceres receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Martin Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 82 | 78 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 159 | 236 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 86 | 109 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 032 | 922 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Martin Bravo controlled the striking through superior volume (109 vs 86 total strikes), superior accuracy (33.1% vs 51.6%). However, since Martin Bravo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alex Caceres's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Martin Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 3:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 942 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Alex Caceres did not secure a significant ground advantage against Martin Bravo on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:43 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Martin Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 223 | 335 |
| Activity ELO | 1 108 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Alex Caceres demonstrated standard activity with 223 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Alex Caceres capitalized on this activity level, while Martin Bravo's 335-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Martin Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Alex Caceres started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Martin Bravo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Martin Bravo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 012 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.