January 24, 2014
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Sergio Pettis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Alex Caceres's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Caceres for the expected result. Had Sergio Pettis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Sergio Pettis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Sergio Pettis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:39 | 4:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 100 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -41 |
Alex Caceres earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:39, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Sergio Pettis was submitted.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Sergio Pettis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 164 | 177 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 105 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Alex Caceres controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alex Caceres capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Sergio Pettis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:33 | 0:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 075 | 861 |
| ELO Change | +158 | -158 |
Alex Caceres dominated Sergio Pettis on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:33 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Sergio Pettis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 124 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -17 |
Alex Caceres demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alex Caceres capitalized on this activity level, while Sergio Pettis's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Sergio Pettis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 062 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Alex Caceres extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sergio Pettis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Sergio Pettis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 048 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.