November 24, 2017
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Wang Guan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 17 | -17 |
| Experience ELO | 903 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -99 | +99 |
Wang Guan overcame a 17-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 18 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alex Caceres.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Wang Guan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 991 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Wang Guan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 048 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Wang Guan receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Wang Guan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 71 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 123 | 164 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 015 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Wang Guan controlled the striking exchanges with 75 vs 49 total strikes, 71 vs 49 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Wang Guan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Wang Guan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:22 | 0:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 918 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Wang Guan landed 1 knockdown followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Wang Guan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 088 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Wang Guan demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Wang Guan capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Caceres's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Wang Guan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 009 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Wang Guan started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Caceres is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Caceres | Wang Guan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 991 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.