October 26, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Court McGee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 066 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Court McGee's 4-fight experience advantage (14 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Court McGee for the expected result. Had Alex Garcia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Court McGee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Court McGee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 108 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Court McGee earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Court McGee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 60 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 111 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 983 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -87 | +87 |
Court McGee dominated the striking exchanges with 111 vs 39 total strikes, 51 vs 27 significant strikes, 58.0% vs 45.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Court McGee capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Court McGee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:06 | 6:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 26 |
| Ground ELO | 1 101 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -89 | +89 |
Court McGee controlled Alex Garcia on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 6:37 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Court McGee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 350 |
| Activity ELO | 1 076 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Court McGee demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Court McGee capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Garcia's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Court McGee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +25 |
Court McGee started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Court McGee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.