February 20, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 077 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:25 | 4:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 093 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +97 |
Sean Strickland gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 84 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 67 | 173 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 113 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 1 239 |
| ELO Change | -121 | +121 |
Sean Strickland dominated the striking exchanges with 113 vs 41 total strikes, 84 vs 23 significant strikes, 48.6% vs 34.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sean Strickland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:29 | 2:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 121 | 1 244 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Sean Strickland landed 1 knockdown followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 226 | 222 |
| Activity ELO | 1 074 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Sean Strickland demonstrated standard activity with 222 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Sean Strickland capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Garcia's 226-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 036 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +26 |
Sean Strickland extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.