June 24, 2017
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 098 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Tim Means's 8-fight experience advantage (15 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Means for the expected result. Had Alex Garcia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 027 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 168 | 1 268 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Tim Means earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 64 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 151 | 174 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 76 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 082 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Tim Means controlled the striking exchanges with 76 vs 32 total strikes, 64 vs 32 significant strikes, 36.8% vs 21.2% accuracy. Tim Means capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:29 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 139 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Tim Means did not secure a significant ground advantage against Alex Garcia on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 177 | 106 |
| Activity ELO | 1 086 | 1 259 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +34 |
Tim Means demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tim Means capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Garcia's 177-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 043 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Tim Means started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Garcia | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 027 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

