January 15, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Karalexis | Jason Von Flue |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 930 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Jason Von Flue overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 3 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alex Karalexis.
| Metric | Alex Karalexis | Jason Von Flue |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 976 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Karalexis | Jason Von Flue |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:17 | 1:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 016 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +75 |
Jason Von Flue earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:17, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Alex Karalexis was submitted.
| Metric | Alex Karalexis | Jason Von Flue |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 60 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 35 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 010 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Jason Von Flue edged the striking exchanges with 28 vs 18 significant strikes, 41.2% vs 30.0% accuracy. Jason Von Flue capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Karalexis | Jason Von Flue |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:14 | 3:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 970 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Jason Von Flue edged out Alex Karalexis on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:19 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alex Karalexis | Jason Von Flue |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 164 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 976 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Jason Von Flue demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Jason Von Flue capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Karalexis's 164-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Karalexis | Jason Von Flue |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Jason Von Flue started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Karalexis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Karalexis | Jason Von Flue |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 976 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.