Alex Karalexis vs Josh Rafferty

April 8, 2005

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1046
(+46)
Alex Karalexis
Winner: Alex Karalexis
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 1:40

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alex Karalexis+46
Josh Rafferty-38
962
(-38)
Josh Rafferty

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Karalexis: +21Josh Rafferty: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex KaralexisJosh Rafferty
Total UFC Fights11
Experience Gap00
Experience ELO1 021979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Karalexis: +21Josh Rafferty: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex KaralexisJosh Rafferty
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 021979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Karalexis: +101Josh Rafferty: -42

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex KaralexisJosh Rafferty
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish1:401:40
Win Type ELO1 101958
ELO Change+101-42
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What Happened

Alex Karalexis earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:40, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Karalexis: +102Josh Rafferty: -102

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex KaralexisJosh Rafferty
Significant Strikes Landed61
Significant Strikes Attempted123
Total Strikes Landed122
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 102898
ELO Change+102-102
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What Happened

Alex Karalexis slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 6 vs 1 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 33.3% accuracy. Alex Karalexis capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Karalexis: +55Josh Rafferty: -55

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex KaralexisJosh Rafferty
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted01
Ground Control Time1:030:00
Ground Strikes Landed60
Ground ELO1 055945
ELO Change+55-55
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What Happened

Alex Karalexis controlled Josh Rafferty on the ground with 1:03 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Karalexis: +21Josh Rafferty: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex KaralexisJosh Rafferty
Days Since Last FightN/AN/A
Activity ELO1 021979
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

Alex Karalexis demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Alex Karalexis capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Rafferty's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Karalexis: +23Josh Rafferty: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex KaralexisJosh Rafferty
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 023979
ELO Change+23-21
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What Happened

Alex Karalexis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Rafferty is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Karalexis: +21Josh Rafferty: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex KaralexisJosh Rafferty
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 021979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.