March 8, 2025
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Morono | Carlos Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 23 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 21 | -21 |
| Experience ELO | 1 073 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +102 |
Carlos Leal overcame a 21-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 23 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alex Morono.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Carlos Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 033 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Carlos Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:16 | 4:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 211 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +153 |
Carlos Leal earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:16, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Carlos Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 79 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 95 | 120 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 987 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -87 | +87 |
Carlos Leal controlled the striking exchanges with 81 vs 41 total strikes, 79 vs 40 significant strikes, 65.8% vs 42.1% accuracy. Carlos Leal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Carlos Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 957 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Carlos Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 192 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +67 |
Carlos Leal demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Carlos Leal capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Morono's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Carlos Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 072 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +30 |
Carlos Leal started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Morono is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Carlos Leal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 030 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.