September 3, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Morono | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 178 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Alex Morono's 9-fight experience advantage (14 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Morono for the expected result. Had David Zawada pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Morono | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 087 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Morono | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 332 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Alex Morono earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alex Morono | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 90 | 86 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 213 | 205 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 96 | 91 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 125 | 927 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Alex Morono slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Alex Morono capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Morono | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:06 | 0:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 099 | 923 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Alex Morono did not secure a significant ground advantage against David Zawada on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:06 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alex Morono | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 225 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -9 |
Alex Morono demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alex Morono capitalized on this activity level, while David Zawada's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Morono | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 116 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Alex Morono extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Zawada is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Morono | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 084 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

