September 21, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Morono | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Keita Nakamura's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Keita Nakamura for the expected result. Had Alex Morono pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 017 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 054 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Keita Nakamura receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 123 | 86 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 054 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Alex Morono controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (38 vs 27). However, since Alex Morono lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Keita Nakamura's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 001 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Keita Nakamura edged out Alex Morono on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 0:45 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 230 | 356 |
| Activity ELO | 1 024 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Keita Nakamura demonstrated standard activity with 356 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Keita Nakamura capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Morono's 230-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 992 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +29 |
Keita Nakamura started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Morono is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Morono | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 017 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.