February 5, 2016
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:28 | 1:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 969 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +49 |
Misha Cirkunov earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:28, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Alex Nicholson was submitted.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 63 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 66 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 964 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Misha Cirkunov dominated the striking exchanges with 66 vs 16 total strikes, 32 vs 16 significant strikes, 50.8% vs 31.4% accuracy. Misha Cirkunov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 881 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -119 | +119 |
Misha Cirkunov dominated Alex Nicholson on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:08 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +35 |
Misha Cirkunov demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Misha Cirkunov capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Nicholson's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Misha Cirkunov extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Nicholson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Misha Cirkunov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

