November 4, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Sam Alvey's 6-fight experience advantage (9 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sam Alvey for the expected result. Had Alex Nicholson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 046 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Sam Alvey earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 82 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 182 | 138 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 046 | 1 197 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Alex Nicholson controlled the striking through superior volume (82 vs 65 total strikes), significant strike advantage (82 vs 63). However, since Alex Nicholson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sam Alvey's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 900 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Sam Alvey did not secure a significant ground advantage against Alex Nicholson on the ground with 0:40 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 116 | 71 |
| Activity ELO | 1 011 | 1 289 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +25 |
Sam Alvey demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 71 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Sam Alvey capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Nicholson's 116-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +23 |
Sam Alvey extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Nicholson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Nicholson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.