September 21, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlo Pedersoli Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 233 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Alex Oliveira's 11-fight experience advantage (13 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Oliveira for the expected result. Had Carlo Pedersoli Jr. pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlo Pedersoli Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 124 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlo Pedersoli Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:39 | 0:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 422 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -8 |
Alex Oliveira secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:39 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlo Pedersoli Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 261 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Alex Oliveira slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 7 vs 2 significant strikes, 70.0% vs 50.0% accuracy. Alex Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlo Pedersoli Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 353 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Alex Oliveira controlled Carlo Pedersoli Jr. on the ground with 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlo Pedersoli Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 118 |
| Activity ELO | 1 352 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -6 |
Alex Oliveira demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alex Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Carlo Pedersoli Jr.'s 118-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlo Pedersoli Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 157 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Alex Oliveira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlo Pedersoli Jr. is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlo Pedersoli Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 122 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.