April 13, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlos Condit |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 214 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -28 |
Alex Oliveira overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Carlos Condit.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlos Condit |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 108 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlos Condit |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:17 | 3:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 401 | 1 276 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -39 |
Alex Oliveira earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:17, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Carlos Condit was submitted.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlos Condit |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 18 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 216 | 1 307 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Carlos Condit controlled the striking through superior volume (42 vs 22 total strikes), superior accuracy (66.7% vs 39.1%). However, since Carlos Condit lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alex Oliveira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlos Condit |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:44 | 2:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 336 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Alex Oliveira dominated Carlos Condit on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 3:44 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlos Condit |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 342 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -13 |
Alex Oliveira demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alex Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Condit's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlos Condit |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 140 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Alex Oliveira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Condit is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Carlos Condit |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 106 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.