February 20, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 071 | 1 358 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Donald Cerrone's 15-fight experience advantage (20 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Donald Cerrone for the expected result. Had Alex Oliveira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 033 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:33 | 2:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 185 | 1 544 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +19 |
Donald Cerrone earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:33, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 115 | 1 410 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
Alex Oliveira controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (14 vs 4). However, since Alex Oliveira lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Donald Cerrone's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:51 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 111 | 1 450 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Donald Cerrone controlled Alex Oliveira on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:33 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 64 |
| Activity ELO | 1 202 | 1 556 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +16 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 64 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Oliveira's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 332 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +8 |
Donald Cerrone started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Donald Cerrone |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 032 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.