Alex Oliveira vs Gilbert Burns

March 20, 2015

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

972
(-28)
Alex Oliveira
Winner: Gilbert Burns
Submission
Round 3 • 4:14

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alex Oliveira-28
Gilbert Burns+33
1104
(+33)
Gilbert Burns

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -27Gilbert Burns: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGilbert Burns
Total UFC Fights13
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO9731 078
ELO Change-27+27
💡

What Happened

Gilbert Burns's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gilbert Burns for the expected result. Had Alex Oliveira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -19Gilbert Burns: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGilbert Burns
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9811 060
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -30Gilbert Burns: +45

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGilbert Burns
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish4:144:14
Win Type ELO9701 148
ELO Change-30+45
💡

What Happened

Gilbert Burns earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:14, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Alex Oliveira was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -19Gilbert Burns: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGilbert Burns
Significant Strikes Landed2917
Significant Strikes Attempted7644
Total Strikes Landed3137
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9811 082
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

Alex Oliveira controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (29 vs 17). However, since Alex Oliveira lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gilbert Burns's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -78Gilbert Burns: +78

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGilbert Burns
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted05
Ground Control Time3:214:01
Ground Strikes Landed04
Ground ELO9221 232
ELO Change-78+78
💡

What Happened

Gilbert Burns dominated Alex Oliveira on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:01 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -17Gilbert Burns: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGilbert Burns
Days Since Last FightN/A148
Activity ELO9831 104
ELO Change-17+34
💡

What Happened

Gilbert Burns demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gilbert Burns capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Oliveira's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -18Gilbert Burns: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGilbert Burns
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO9821 071
ELO Change-18+24
💡

What Happened

Gilbert Burns extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -19Gilbert Burns: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGilbert Burns
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9811 060
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.