Alex Oliveira vs Gunnar Nelson

December 7, 2018

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1215
(-38)
Alex Oliveira
Winner: Gunnar Nelson
Submission
Round 2 • 4:17

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alex Oliveira-38
Gunnar Nelson+44
1204
(+44)
Gunnar Nelson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -38Gunnar Nelson: +48

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Total UFC Fights1410
Experience Gap4-4
Experience ELO1 1951 207
ELO Change-38+48
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What Happened

Gunnar Nelson overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alex Oliveira.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -24Gunnar Nelson: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1001 092
ELO Change-24+24
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -55Gunnar Nelson: +85

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish4:174:17
Win Type ELO1 3671 397
ELO Change-55+85
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What Happened

Gunnar Nelson earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:17, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Alex Oliveira was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -29Gunnar Nelson: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Significant Strikes Landed3611
Significant Strikes Attempted4911
Total Strikes Landed5220
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2321 151
ELO Change-29+29
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What Happened

Alex Oliveira controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (52 vs 20 total strikes), significant strike advantage (36 vs 11), superior accuracy (73.5% vs 100.0%). However, since Alex Oliveira lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gunnar Nelson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -81Gunnar Nelson: +81

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted25
Ground Control Time3:064:42
Ground Strikes Landed249
Ground ELO1 2721 401
ELO Change-81+81
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What Happened

Gunnar Nelson controlled Alex Oliveira on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:42 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -32Gunnar Nelson: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Days Since Last Fight78511
Activity ELO1 3201 169
ELO Change-32+29
💡

What Happened

Gunnar Nelson demonstrated extended layoff with 511 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Gunnar Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Oliveira's 78-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -25Gunnar Nelson: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 1321 122
ELO Change-25+27
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What Happened

Gunnar Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: -24Gunnar Nelson: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0981 091
ELO Change-24+24
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.