Alex Oliveira vs Joe Merritt

June 26, 2015

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1072
(+41)
Alex Oliveira
Winner: Alex Oliveira
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Alex Oliveira+41
Joe Merritt-28
972
(-28)
Joe Merritt

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: +29Joe Merritt: -29

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraJoe Merritt
Total UFC Fights31
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 054971
ELO Change+29-29
💡

What Happened

Alex Oliveira's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Oliveira for the expected result. Had Joe Merritt pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: +21Joe Merritt: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraJoe Merritt
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 026979
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: +32Joe Merritt: -32

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraJoe Merritt
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 118968
ELO Change+32-32
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What Happened

Alex Oliveira earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: +20Joe Merritt: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraJoe Merritt
Significant Strikes Landed1123
Significant Strikes Attempted3339
Total Strikes Landed3334
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 030980
ELO Change+20-20
💡

What Happened

Joe Merritt controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (23 vs 11), superior accuracy (59.0% vs 33.3%). However, since Joe Merritt lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alex Oliveira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: +61Joe Merritt: -61

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraJoe Merritt
Takedowns Landed50
Takedowns Attempted162
Ground Control Time10:232:30
Ground Strikes Landed211
Ground ELO1 101939
ELO Change+61-61
💡

What Happened

Alex Oliveira controlled Joe Merritt on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 10:23 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: +119Joe Merritt: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraJoe Merritt
Days Since Last Fight28N/A
Activity ELO1 185983
ELO Change+119-17
💡

What Happened

Alex Oliveira demonstrated exceptional activity with 28 days since his last fight, earning a high activity bonus for the rapid turnaround. As the winner, Alex Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Merritt's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: +25Joe Merritt: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraJoe Merritt
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 034980
ELO Change+25-20
💡

What Happened

Alex Oliveira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Merritt is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Alex Oliveira: +21Joe Merritt: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAlex OliveiraJoe Merritt
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 026979
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.