June 26, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Joe Merritt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 054 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Alex Oliveira's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Oliveira for the expected result. Had Joe Merritt pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Joe Merritt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Joe Merritt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 118 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Alex Oliveira earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Joe Merritt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 39 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 030 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Joe Merritt controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (23 vs 11), superior accuracy (59.0% vs 33.3%). However, since Joe Merritt lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alex Oliveira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Joe Merritt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 16 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:23 | 2:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 101 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Alex Oliveira controlled Joe Merritt on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 10:23 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Joe Merritt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 28 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 185 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +119 | -17 |
Alex Oliveira demonstrated exceptional activity with 28 days since his last fight, earning a high activity bonus for the rapid turnaround. As the winner, Alex Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Merritt's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Joe Merritt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 034 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Alex Oliveira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Merritt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Joe Merritt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

