May 29, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 025 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -43 |
Alex Oliveira overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran KJ Noons.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:51 | 2:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 086 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | +116 | -66 |
Alex Oliveira earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:51, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 010 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
KJ Noons controlled the striking through superior accuracy (63.6% vs 23.1%). However, since KJ Noons lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Alex Oliveira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:20 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 040 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +118 | -118 |
Alex Oliveira dominated KJ Noons on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 1:20 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 066 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -28 |
Alex Oliveira demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Alex Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while KJ Noons's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 009 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -25 |
Alex Oliveira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. KJ Noons is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.