March 6, 2020
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 131 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Alex Oliveira's 8-fight experience advantage (17 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Oliveira for the expected result. Had Max Griffin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 239 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Alex Oliveira receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 77 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 61 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 158 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Alex Oliveira controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 23 significant strikes. Alex Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:30 | 5:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 147 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Alex Oliveira edged out Max Griffin on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:30 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 276 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -12 |
Alex Oliveira demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alex Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Max Griffin's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 096 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -16 |
Alex Oliveira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Max Griffin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Max Griffin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.