September 27, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +82 |
Nicolas Dalby overcame a 11-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alex Oliveira.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 233 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +75 |
Nicolas Dalby earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 47 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 134 | 965 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Nicolas Dalby controlled the striking exchanges with 64 vs 31 total strikes, 31 vs 18 significant strikes. Nicolas Dalby capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:56 | 5:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 119 | 993 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Nicolas Dalby edged out Alex Oliveira on the ground with 1 takedown, 5:28 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 1 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 256 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +32 |
Nicolas Dalby demonstrated extended layoff with 1120 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Nicolas Dalby capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Oliveira's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 079 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +31 |
Nicolas Dalby started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 046 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.