July 24, 2020
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 154 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Alex Oliveira's 8-fight experience advantage (18 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Oliveira for the expected result. Had Peter Sobotta pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 082 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 271 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Alex Oliveira earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 93 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 216 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Alex Oliveira controlled the striking exchanges with 45 vs 29 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Alex Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:26 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 189 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Alex Oliveira landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 861 |
| Activity ELO | 1 292 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -8 |
Alex Oliveira demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Alex Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Peter Sobotta's 861-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 116 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Alex Oliveira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Peter Sobotta is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Peter Sobotta |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 080 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.