April 23, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 989 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +35 |
Randy Brown overcame a 9-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 20 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Alex Oliveira.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 035 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:50 | 2:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 169 | 1 332 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +58 |
Randy Brown earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:50, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 088 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
Randy Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 16 vs 7 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 58.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Randy Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 017 | 1 242 |
| ELO Change | -109 | +109 |
Randy Brown dominated Alex Oliveira on the ground with 1:23 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 1 229 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +35 |
Randy Brown demonstrated standard activity with 266 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Randy Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Oliveira's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 066 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Randy Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 033 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.