September 30, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 133 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Alex Oliveira's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Alex Oliveira for the expected result. Had Will Brooks pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 071 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:30 | 3:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 267 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -25 |
Alex Oliveira gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 48 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 59 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 80 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 227 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Alex Oliveira dominated the striking exchanges with 80 vs 29 total strikes, 48 vs 16 significant strikes, 81.4% vs 94.1% accuracy. Alex Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:11 | 3:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 237 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Alex Oliveira controlled Will Brooks on the ground with 4 takedowns, 8:11 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | 85 |
| Activity ELO | 1 254 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -11 |
Alex Oliveira demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Alex Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Will Brooks's 85-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -19 |
Alex Oliveira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Will Brooks is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Oliveira | Will Brooks |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 070 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.