April 7, 2023
UFC Middleweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 272 | 1 454 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Israel Adesanya's 10-fight experience advantage (15 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Israel Adesanya for the expected result. Had Alex Pereira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 169 | 1 382 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +35 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Israel Adesanya captured the UFC Middleweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:21 | 4:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 441 | 1 679 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +47 |
Israel Adesanya gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 96 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 400 | 1 748 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Alex Pereira controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (49 vs 41), superior accuracy (57.6% vs 42.7%). However, since Alex Pereira lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Israel Adesanya's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 106 | 1 344 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 241 | 1 475 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +20 |
Israel Adesanya demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Israel Adesanya capitalized on this activity level, while Alex Pereira's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 139 | 1 419 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
Israel Adesanya started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alex Pereira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alex Pereira | Israel Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 088 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.